AT&T’s agreed $23 billion purchase of EchoStar’s low-band and mid-band spectrum last week solidified AT&T’s position as a carrier and probably saved EchoStar from bankruptcy and regulatory problems. But the proposed deal – expected to close in mid-2026 – will have far-reaching impact on wireless networking that goes well beyond AT&T and EchoStar.

There has been a great deal of media interest in the deal, which EchoStar admitted in a regulatory filing was part of its “ongoing efforts to resolve the Federal Communications Commission’s inquiries.”

Analysts and industry pundits attributed the deal to political pressures from the U.S., and it ended the chance of Dish Network (EchoStar’s owner) becoming the fourth major MNO (mobile network operator) carrier. In fact, the headline of a Light Reading story was “The end of the fourth carrier experiment.” In that story, Roger Entner of market intelligence firm Recon Analytics, wrote “The US wireless market has been irrevocably altered.” He added the deal “is not merely a transaction; it is the final, politically brokered act in the long-running drama of the fourth facilities-based carrier.”

Of the main principals, Entner wrote “For AT&T, this is a strategic masterstroke, securing a substantial tranche of valuable mid-band and low-band spectrum that immediately enhances its 5G network capacity and competitive posture against T-Mobile and Verizon.

“This transaction formally ends the regulatory experiment to forge a fourth national competitor. EchoStar, facing insurmountable financial and regulatory pressures, has chosen survival and partnership over a continued, untenable solo buildout.”

'Result of Direct Pressure' on EchoStar

In The Verge, Karl Bode also wrote that the deal ends any chance of a fourth wireless carrier, and he puts the blame on the Trump administration. He traces the deal to ripples caused when the Justice Department approved T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint during Trump’s first term.

“With Dish Network owner EchoStar selling $23 billion in valuable spectrum to AT&T, any pretense that the TV provider will become a serious wireless competitor is dead,” Bode wrote.

He added the deal “appears to be the result of direct pressure by Trump officials. The arrangement demolishes Dish’s ambition to become a fourth wireless carrier, empowers AT&T as a dominant carrier, and ends any hopes that the US can fix the competitive harm caused by the [2020] merger of Sprint and T-Mobile.”

Fierce Network executive editor Monica Alleven wrote that, even if the acquisition made EchoStar investors happy, it was the loser in the deal.

“I’ll keep this short and sweet,” she wrote. “The sale is good news for AT&T. But it’s bad news for EchoStar, as well as its Dish Network and Boost Mobile wireless ambitions, even though investors were champing at the bit for EchoStar to sell its spectrum. Let’s face it. Practically from the get-go, or so it seems, Wall Street was gunning for EchoStar Chairman Charlie Ergen to sell his spectrum. Did you see EchoStar’s 70% jump in stock last week? Whew.”

Alleven added: “It’s a sad day when we can no longer root for four facilities-based wireless operators in the U.S. Four is much more exciting than three, and I’d argue, more competitive.”

Is AT&T's Win Cable's Loss?

Investment bank BNP-Paribas’ analysts called the deal a win for AT&T and the wireless industry in general but a negative for cable operators.

“For AT&T, the deal secures additional spectrum, prolongs the existence of [EchoStar-owned] Boost Mobile as a wholesale customer, and avoids the Boost spectrum falling into the hands of a third party (e.g. there have been fears of an Amazon acquiring Boost, or the cable companies acquiring the spectrum and becoming bigger competitors in wireless),” according to the bank’s report. “In a similar vein, we think this is broadly positive for the wireless industry (Verizon and T-Mobile US) as it removes a potential negative event of cable/other company acquiring EchoStar licenses and wireless operations (with the small caveat that this deal may also enable EchoStar to fund Boost wireless for longer than was previously possible).”

However, the BNP-Paribas’ report added: “We view this as a small negative for the cable industry, as this deal will bolster AT&T’s spectrum positioning, giving them growing capacity to offer FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) services (potentially capacity for an additional 1-2 million households). Furthermore, while complicated, the existence of EchoStar as a potential longer-term partner for cable in the wireless industry (to diversify their MVNO arrangements away from Verizon) did create some optionality – but this transaction reduces that potential optionality, giving the cable companies less long-term negotiating power with Verizon.”

Experts are also watching closely to see how this deal impacts future moves.

“More spectrum sales will surely follow, and if [AT&T-EchoStar] transaction is any indication, those, too, could fetch more than we had imagined,” Moffett Nathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a research note to investors.